Approval of President Donald Trump rose to 34.5 percent among black registered voters in a recent Emerson poll.
The number is notable because only 8 percent of blacks voted for Trump in 2016, according to Cornell Universitys Roper Center.
The poll of 1,092 registered voters was conducted Nov. 17–20, partly by automated landline calls and partly online. The same poll taken a month earlier showed approval for Trumps presidency at 17.8 percent among blacks.
The pollster warns that results for subsets of voters have a higher margin of error than the 2.9 percentage points the poll has as a whole. For black voters, the margin is 8.3 percent, according to Spencer Kimball, assistant professor at Emerson College who oversees the polling.
But there doesnt seem to be any issue with the data itself that could explain such a significant increase.
In November, Emerson interviewed 153 black voters, compared with 140 in October. There were slightly more Republicans in the November group (13.1 percent versus 10.2 percent in October). But there were also more Democrats (69.5 percent vs 64.1 percent).
“There was no change to the methodology,” Kimball said in an email to The Epoch Times. “This could be attributed to variance within the subsets … and be an anomaly, or it could be the start of a trend. … I have noticed [Trumps] approval with minority voters slightly higher than his 2016 vote totals and think he might do better with this vote than he did in 2016.”
The poll also showed significantly higher approval among Hispanic voters—38.2 percent in November compared to 26.2 percent the month earlier. Again, there were more Hispanic Republicans interviewed in November (16.8 percent vs 12.9 percent the month before), but not enough to explain the rise in Trump approval.
Overall, the poll showed Trumps approval at 48.3 percent, up from 43.2 percent the month before.
Several other contemporary polls showed much lower Trump approval among blacks in November. The Economist/YouGov had the number at 16 percent among American adults (pdf). Morning Consult/Politico reported 18 percent among registered voters (pdf). Gallup showed 21 percent approval among non-white adults (pdf).
Other polls, however, fell roughly in line with Emerson. Trump had 33 percent approval among non-white adults in the mid-November NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll (pdf). A Rasmussen poll indicated 34 percent support among likely black voters.
While Rasmussen was the most accurate in predicting Trumps 2016 victory, polls proved largely inaccuratRead More – Source